It is that wonderful time of the year again. Who do we draft? What position do we need the most help with?
What draft philosophy do we pursue? Best available athlete? Position?
I will have my own wild guesses thoughtful analysis to post soon. In a frenzy of cut and paste I perused the World Wide Web and found these offerings. I nominate NFL Draft Site for the most over the top selection of Jeremy Maclin at WR for the Texans No. 1 pick. Close second would be cddrafts for their choice of a HB, Chris Wells.
I surveyed 16 mock draft sites. I was shooting for 20 but got bored. The consensus position is DE with eight of the sixteen picking a DE for the Texans. That is followed by CB with 5, two for a LB and then our WR and HB guys with one each respectively.
Name | Position | Site |
Aaron Maybin | DE – Penn St. |
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com
|
Michael Johnson | DE – Georgia Tech | http://www.nflmockdraftaces.com/
http://www.walterfootball.com/draft2009.php
http://blogs.chron.com/fanblogtexans
|
Brian Orakpo | DE – UT | |
Vonte Davis | CB – Illinois | http://cfn.scout.com/2/832662.html
http://nbcsports.msnbc.com/id/28774609/
|
Everette Brown | DE – Florida St. |
http://www.kffl.com/article.php/99957/512
|
Brian Cushing | LB – USC | http://www.mynfldraft.com/NFL-Mock-Draft
http://www.profootballcentral.com
|
Jeremy Maclin | WR – Missouri | |
Chris Wells | HB – Ohio St. |
Densive could be a word.
| Houston | Denver |
|---|---|
| DE: Mario Williams | DE: Neil Smith |
| DE: Anthony Weaver | DE: Maa Tanuvasa |
| DT: Travis Johnson | DT: Keith Traylor |
| DT: Amobi Okoye | DT: Trevor Pryce |
| SLB: Zac Diles | SLB: Bill Romanowski |
| WLB: Xavier Adibi | WLB: John Mobley |
| MLB: DeMeco Ryans | MLB: Glenn Cadrez |
| CB1: Dunta Robinson | CB1: Darrien Gordon |
| CB2: Jacques Reeves | CB2: Ray Crockett |
| FS: Eugene Wilson | FS: Steve Atwater |
| SS: Nick Ferguson | SS: Tyrone Braxton |
"I go over the three-year period and I look at how we progressed. I do not feel good about the progress we’ve made on that side of the ball, and I think for us to take the next step, we have to make a big-time improvement there. So it’s something that’s taken place over a long period of time. Like you said, this is not an overnight decision. It’s something that I’ve had a very difficult time with as we’ve worked toward it, but it’s a tough decision I had to make as part of my job.” Gary Kubiak
I had written the following as an introduction to a post lamenting the Texans 8-8 finish. The recent firing of Richard Smith makes most of it a moot point. Thankfully.
I had watched the debacle at Oakland last week and felt a deep sense of disappointment. The Texans showed us yet again that they are not prepared to assume the mantle of a division contender. I said I was disappointed. I was not surprised. I know that the game had absolutely no mathematical playoff ramifications. Yet it was a good measure of maturity and growth.
A good team would have taken their skills, their assets and matching them against a clearly inferior opponent, taken care of business. One of these assets is consistent effort and performance. This Texans team has not arrived at that point. This doesn’t speak to the physical acumen but the mental toughness and preparation. The results highlighted and magnified the weaknesses that exist on this roster.
The mental toughness is the players job. The prepartion is coaching. And it seems the latter has undermined the former on defense.
Unless these are addressed and corrected it will spell more of the same. When I watched the Oakland game for a second time it looked even worse. Not just the defensive side of the ball. Anyone on the Texans notice the Oakland linebackers keying on Slatons every move ?
Our defense is Richard Smith Predictable. One of our most glaring weaknesses: Our pass rush. If you can’t get pressure on the quarterback with the front four, and we can’t, you have to find another way to accomplish this. This QB dissecting our secondary was, if you remember, Jamarcus Russell ! I have written way too much about this and I haven’t even been around here much this year.
This decision moves the Texans forward. I think it came a year too late. And that is why I am not that excited about finishing at .500 again this year. It was a step backwards. Gary Kubiaks next decision about this coaching position will define the success or failure of his tenure here.
I know that this probably seems like a moot point, but after listening to Mike Clark all game over at Battle Red Blog, I'm feeling optimistic. So here's the questions: At what point do you decide not to fire Richard Smith?
As ridiculous as it may sound, the Texans are not yet mathematically eliminated from playoff contention yet. If they were to win out, they would finish 9-7, and depending on how other teams did, they would have a chance at making the playoffs.
If the Texans managed to make it into the playoffs after the season they've had, would you be willing to get rid of the DC? Would it matter if our defense had played well over the last few games?
The last two games, whoever has been in charge of the defense seems to have been calling more blitzes. If this keeps up, and we keep winning, we have to rethink our Fire Richard Smith campaign.
Starting at the most ridiculous of scenarios, and working our way back, I'd like to figure out when not firing Richard Smith becomes a viable option.
If the Texans:
So to recap my little list, playoffs should allow Dick Smith to keep his job. I say this with the assumption that we are winning with the help of our defense, not in spite of it. If we manage to make it to the playoffs, I think it is a safe assumption that our defense has quit playing as horribly as it did throught most of the year. If we win 6 games in a row (including the most recent wins against Cleveland and Jacksonville) I think it will be a sign that our defense is playing much better. At this point, I'm still making the assumption that we're winning with the help of our defense, not in spite of them. Frankly, the only way we make it to this point is if the defense starts playing very well, and our offense plays like they have been.
At 8-8, we need to have been playing very solid defense, and our only loss needs to have come because of mistakes on the offensive side of the ball, not the defense. Any record worse than 8-8, and our defense would have to become dominant, whereas our offense becomes bad and ineffective in order for Dick Smith to have a legitimate argument for keeping his job. I can't really foresee this happening, even with Sage at the helm for the rest of the season, so any record worse than 8-8 is probably going to get pinned on Dick Smith.
Even after an uplifting Monday Night win, I'm only comfortable predicting a win against the Raiders. If we win two more games, it will be a surprise, and anything more than two will be the shock of the century. So a 6-10 season would not be surprising right now, and anything better than that would. Even with a surprise win somewhere in the next four games, I don't think it will be enough.So, I think that if we win out, we need to keep Dick Smith as the DC, and see if he can continue this metamorphosis. If we don't win out, but the defense suddenly becomes a top ten defense, I think we keep Dick Smith, but have a replacement waiting in the wings (Frank Bush?). Anything outside of those two scenarios, and I think Dick Smith gets the Axe.
What would Dick Smith have to do, if it's even possible, to make you think he had earned a shot at being the DC again next year?
Before I get to the game, I have to make a confession. My allergies were acting up, so I took some Nyquil and slept through all but the first quarter of the game. That said, I've read the write-ups on DGDB&D and BRB, and I'm underwhelmed by the Texans.
At some point, Kubiak has to bear the blame for the Texans as a whole but I don't think that we've reached that point yet. I think that the blame for this season lands squarely on Richard Smith's shoulders. Kubiak's done well on the offensive side of the ball, but as the head coach, he has to make sure that the Defensive Coordinator is doing his job.
Not to pile onto Sage, but he's clearly not the answer. That said, I think that at some point he'll rebound and play a good game or two. It's just the nature of the beast. Sage is going to have a good game before Matt gets back. It might be against the Colts, but more likely against the Browns. I think the important thing in this adventure is to keep an even keel. Sage is not the worst QB in the history of ever. He's also not the savior of the franchise. Last season, I think he played over his head some, but I expect that Kubiak will put him in a position to succeed this coming week. If our defense could play at a respectable level, I'd be willing to think that we had a shot at beating any team in the league.
Just like Christmas decorations seem to come earlier every year, the time for talking about the draft seems to have arrived. The rest of the season should be spent evaluating our young talent; Specifically Frank Okam, Xavier Adibi and Antwaun Molden. If Okam can produce and be a big body in the middle of our D-line, we won't have to spend a high draft pick on a big Defensive Tackle. Between Earl Cochran, Mario Williams, Tim Bulman, Amobi Okoye and hopefully Frank Okam, we should have a good D-line.
Our Linebacking Corps seems pretty solid. In DeMeco Ryans, we have one of the best Middle Linebackers in the NFL. With Zac Diles, we have an undersized, but tenacious Strongside Linebacker. On the Weakside, Xavier Adibi seems ideal. He's relatively small, but he's quick. I think we can manage with Diles at SLB, but if we could get a prototypical SLB, I'd be happier.
Our secondary is a joke. Everyone knows this. Well, everyone but Richard Smith that is. Dunta Robinson is back, and by next season, he should be back to his old self. If Antwaun Molden shows that he is a capable Cornerback, then we can focus on finding a starting CB to match up with Dunta. Ideally, I'd like to see us drop an armored truck filled with money off at Nnamdi Asomugha's house. With Asomugha, Dunta would become the second best CB on the team and Bennet and Molden could play as Nickel backs until they're ready for the primetime. At Safety, I'm happy with Eugene Wilson and any of our many Strong Safeties.
On offense, I think we're very close to having all the pieces. Wide Receiver is our deepest position, and this is not a position that we need to address in the offseason. For purposes of this discussion, I'm including the Tight End with the Wide Receivers, especially as we don't need to address it in the offseason. With Wide Receiver and Tight End taken care of, we only need to discuss Quarterback, Runningback and the Offensive Line.
Matt Schaub is a good Quarterback. I don't think that he's a great Quarterback though, and I'm no longer willing to wager that he'll be healthy for an entire season. I'm also convinced that even though I think Sage will rebound and play a decent game or two, he's not the answer either. I think that while we still have both of these Quarterbacks on the roster we need to draft a QB high in the draft and then sit him for a year while he learns the system. The ideal situation would be if Graham Harrell fell to our draft spot in the second round. He seems to have all the physical and mental tools, with the only handicap being that he's used to playing in the gun.
At Runningback, Slaton has been a breath of fresh air. In order to get the maximum value out of him though, a big bruising runningback is needed. Preferably a runningback without horrific injury problems. I've been thinking about Jorvorskie Lane as a late round draft pick or an undrafted free agent pick up. His problem, as far as I can tell, is that he doesn't have the top end speed to succeed. He's got good acceleration, he's got good hands, and he likes contact. He's sort of like Ron Dayne, except that he's a power back, not just a slow back.
On the O-line, I think we're very close. I think that Winston is still a solid Right Tackle, I think that Brisiel/Studdard can make it as a Right Guard. I think that Pitts is a good Left Guard and I think that Duane Brown is pretty good for a rookie, and will continue to get better. This just leaves the Center. Last year when Steve McKinney was playing, we had a running game. When Flanagan stepped in, our running game dissappeared. Based partially on this, I think that the Center is the key to the whole O-line. What I'd like to see is a Center that's big enough to hold his own agaisnt some of the Defensive Tackles that we face, while still being quick enough to run the Zone Blocking Scheme. I think if we take care of Center, our running game will improve, especially in short yardage/goal line situations, and as a result our Play Action passing game will improve.
So, to wrap up, we'll win a few more games, and I may end up looking foolish for starting to talk about the Draft so early, but I think that we're just a few pieces away from being really good, and there's not anything that we can do about it until the offseason. I figure that we'll pick somewhere between 10-15, which is plenty high enough to get game changers.
Here's what I'd like to see:
As has been covered on several other websites, the Texans injury bug is back, and with a vengeance.
In other news, Duane Brown is still a rookie. This means that despite being a first round pick, he's not ready to play a full game. Some of this seems to be about his talent level, but most of it seems to be about his conditioning level. In some respects, it's a relief that he isn't playing every offensive snap because of his conditioning as opposed to his talent level. Whats worrisome about it, is that he's in the NFL, sohow did he not work on his conditioning more? It should be something he works on over the offseason, and he should be improved next year.
Steve Slaton is still showing flashes of brilliance, but they remain flashes. He remains a big play threat, but on most plays, you can expect him to plow into the line and gain two yards. I can think of two reasons why he keeps running up the middle: (1) The play is being called up the middle in which case Kubiak/Shanahan is to blame, or (2) Outside plays are called, and Slaton cuts inside, in which case Slaton is to blame. If the latter is the case, that has to be worked on, but we still seem in good shape. If the former is the case, then you have to wonder what the coaches are thinking. One of the alleged benefits of Zone Blocking is that it tires out the Defensive Linemen. If we run to the outside (assuming we can seal off the Defensive Ends and get a block on the Outside Linebacker) then we make the interior Defensive Linemen run, tiring them out. If we run it up the middle against Defensive Tackles like Pat and Kevin Williams or Albert Haynesworth, all we end up doing is tiring out our own Offensive Line and Runningback with the added bonus of making for difficult third downs.
Matt Schaub is quickly becoming a source of anger. It's not even directed at him, as much as the situations that he keeps putting the Texans in. I still think that when healthy, Schaub is the answer for the Texans at Quarterback. The problem is that he seems to keep getting injured. I keep hearing that any player who was on the receiving end of the blows that Schaub took would have gotten injured. I've seen the hits, and it's probably true. At some point however, it quits becoming a coincidence or bad luck and it becomes the fault of something that Schaub is doing. Either way, these next four weeks are going to be nerve racking. If we lose, we start talking about who's going to be available in the draft. If we win, we start talking about a Sage Rosenfels led Houston Texans team. Neither one of those outcomes seems particularly appealing.
On Defense, Richard Smith continues to be an anathema to Texans fans everywhere. Assuming that he's in charge of personnel, his decisions are baffling. Even if he's not, he's doing very little with what he's given. Our starting Defensive Line is worthless, with the exception of Mario Williams. Travis Johnson should not be starting, Amobi Okoye has regressed, and Zgonina is the oldest defensive lineman in the NFL, and yet, he still manages to work his way into the starting lineup. The only players who have produced besides Mario Williams are Tim Bulman and Earl Cochran, neither of which is starting. It's absolutely baffling.
At Linebacker, Xavier Adibi continues to suffer from the worst case of the flu mankind has ever seen. This is not to belittle him, it's just frustrating. I know that he lost a lot of weight, and that you can't really control when you get sick, but this is ridiculous. Morlon Greenwood seems to have heard about how excited many Texans fans were with his caliber of play last year, and has made it his mission to make us regret that excitement. As mentioned above, DeMeco is playing injured and Zac Diles, who had been one of the pleasant surprises of the season, is out for the rest of the year after a fluke injury. Kevin Bentley is expected to take his spot in the starting lineup.
Our defensive backs are awful. Reeves and Faggins may be the worst corner combo in the league, Fred Bennet is playing worse than he did as a rookie, and Dunta is even whiffing on plays. It's an ugly sight. The one bright spot has been our secondary play. During the draft, I tried to advance the idea of drafting a Free Safety. I still think that a good FS can take pressure off of our horrible secondary and frees up the Strong Safety to make plays in the run game. We got Eugene Wilson as a free agent after training camp, and he's been as good of a FS as the Texans have had. It's been refreshing. I would still like to see a Free Safety drafted early, but with Wilson, we can do without it if there isn't any value at that position in the draft.
Finally, Chester Pitts has a blog at the Chronicle. At first I was hopeful. His first post was biographical in nature. Nothing wrong with that. The next two posts were about Pitts and some other players going to a Katy elementary school and trying to do the Hula Hoop. At this point, I became a little dubious, but I was still hopeful that we'd get some more substantive posts. The last post made me sad. Specifically this quote:
"Receivers run and catch HOT routes and quarterback's have the ultimate authority of it all. On where and who we are assigned to block, making throws where they need to go and on time. Bet you never would have thought that football was this complex? As long as the quarterback play is great, like we have had, and he gets passes thrown on time, then we look great! If not, it is the complete opposite."It's not written poorly or anything, it's just disappointing. I was hoping that it would be written with more depth of knowledge. It seems like people reading the sports section of the Chronicle already realize that football was complex. It's written for more casual fans, it just seems like a wasted opportunity to me. Although, as a blogger who hasn't posted anything since October 14th, I really don't have any room to talk.
The first game the Texans played was a blowout, and the Texans had no business being on the same field as the Steelers.
The second game the Texans played might as well have been a blowout, because the final score is all that really matters.
The third game was a huge dissapointment. Our offense played well, but our defense just couldn't get the Jaguar's offense off of the field.
The fourth game was arguably the most heartbreaking game in the short existence of the Texans.
Finally, we have a victory. It didn't matter how close we came in the first four games, because a loss is a loss and moral victories don't count, so I don't care
how close this game was to being a loss, because a win is a win. More to come later. For now, I'm just going to enjoy the fact that the Texans are not one of the
only remaining winless teams in the NFL.
Last year I did a very good comparison of Schaub and Rosenfels in the red zone which statisticaly gave Rosenfels a clear edge over Schaub. But somehow I could never get on the Rosenfels bandwagon. Even after the Schaubs shaky performances in games one and two.
"Schaub is the number one guy. Ask Kubiak. I am still worried about his performance in the red zone. He has not completed an entire year as a starting quarterback. He does demonstrate some raw talent that Sage Rosenfels will never have.
If he stays healthy he can polish that talent and that upside potential is why he is ahead of Rosenfels in the lineup." Outlaw
Today the quarterback controversy is solved. Sage Rosenfels will fulfil his role as a back up. He is not starter material. It remains to be seen if Schaub is. Rosenfels meltdown in the last five minutes of a won game was historical in its proportions.
I am a fan and I have to do what I can to move on to the next one. As an armchair analyst I found plenty to like about the Texans effort. Make no mistake. The Texans had pummeled the Colts. They had been beaten on both sides of the ball. But our Texans were not ready to move past the level of incompetence they have shown throughout there existence.
So the cliche "Snatched defeat from the jaws of victory" was heard all over the networks and radio. So now the Texans sit at 0-4. Shoulda. Woulda. Coulda. How close and how far away was 2-2 ? Another league. More to say later.
